The third week of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and with it comes several marquee matchups between playoff contenders. For football fans who enjoy putting some skin in the game, let‘s dive into all of the NFL betting lines, insightful analysis, and advanced strategies you need to crush the books in Week 3.
How NFL Betting Odds and Lines Work
Before we get to the games, let‘s make sure we‘re all on the same page with how NFL odds operate. Against the spread (ATS), the favored team must win by more than the listed margin for bets on them to cash. For underdogs against the spread, they can lose by less than the spread or win outright and you still win your bet.
Moneyline odds simply require you to pick the outright winner without factoring in a points spread. Favored teams have negative odds (e.g. -200) while underdogs have positive odds (e.g. +180). The higher the number the bigger the favorite or the bigger the underdog.
Over/under total betting involves predicting whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under the listed total. Let‘s look at some hypothetical lines:
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Spread: SEA -3 (-110) | SF +3 (-110)
Moneyline: SEA -155 | SF +135
Over/Under: 42 points (-105 either side)
The Seahawks are 3 point favorites. They must win by over 3 for Seahawks bets to win. The 49ers are +3 underdogs meaning they can lose by under 3 or win outright to cover. Moneyline odds for both teams are also listed. The total is set at 42 points – pick whether you think the combined score will be over or under 42.
Now that we understand how to read lines and odds, let‘s get to the Week 3 matchups.
Game Lines and Predictions
Based on early NFL odds for Week 3, here are some of the top games along with betting analysis:
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This AFC West rivalry should feature plenty of fireworks with two of the most talented young quarterbacks. The Chiefs have dominated with 15 wins over the Chargers in their last 16 matchups. But L.A. has played them tight as of late, covering in 5 of the previous 6. Justin Herbert‘s Chargers are also playing tremendous right now, leading the NFL in total yards. Even on the road, taking L.A. and the points feels like a solid play.
Prediction: Chargers +6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
This potential NFC Championship preview pits the reigning champ Tom Brady against 4-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Brady is an astonishing 14-3 straight up and 13-4 against the spread versus Green Bay in his career. But he historically struggles in Florida‘s early season heat. Meanwhile, Rodgers thrives in Tampa with a 115.9 passer rating in 5 career road starts against the Bucs. At home in the heat, I like Rodgers and the points.
Prediction: Packers +2.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos
The 49ers came crashing back to reality last week after stomping the Seahawks. Now they host a feisty Broncos team with Russell Wilson playing his best football. Wilson is 9-1 lifetime versus San Francisco with 22 TDs and just 4 INTs. Off an emotional home loss on Monday night, I like Denver as small road underdogs to get back on track.
Prediction: Broncos +1.5
Now let‘s examine some betting strategies that can up your chances on NFL Sundays.
Advanced Betting Strategies and Tips
While picking sides and totals are the most basic NFL bets, the following advanced wagers can enhance your profits:
Teasers – Buying extra points on a spread to increase win probability but with lower payouts.
Prop Bets – Wager on player outcomes like passing yards or first TD scorer.
Live Betting – Betting on in-game odds which shift rapidly as events unfold.
Parlay Bets – Picking multiple outcomes together for higher payouts but lower odds.
Some things to keep in mind that can improve results:
- Home underdogs of +7 or more cover the spread about 55% historically.
- Unders have hit more often than overs dating back to 2003.
- Betting against the public consensus pick can provide value.
- Shop for the best lines by having accounts with multiple sportsbooks.
Proper bankroll management is also key. Bet 1-3% of your bankroll per wager and avoid chasing losses. Discipline and patience are vital to long-term betting success.
Now that we‘ve covered critical strategy advice, let‘s examine the legal U.S. sportsbooks offering the best bonuses and odds.
Top Sportsbooks for NFL Betting
Here are some of the leading sportsbooks to bet on NFL action:
FanDuel – Stellar mobile app and ongoing promos
DraftKings – Excellent for player prop bets and live wagering
Caesars – Wide variety of prop bet offerings
PointsBet – Unique "points betting" model and odds boosts
No matter which sportsbook you choose, look for generous welcome bonuses, ongoing promotions like odds boosts, fast payouts, and live betting capabilities. This gives you the most valuable perks.
Final Thoughts on Crushing Week 3
Week 3 provides no shortage of close matchups between talented teams. The Chargers, Packers, and Broncos seem to offer the most betting value as short underdogs.
Consider using teasers and parlay bets to increase payouts. Stay disciplined with bankroll management. Shop for the best odds and line value.
Let me know if you have any NFL bets you‘re considering for Week 3! I‘m always looking to learn more from other sharp bettors. Hopefully this guide better prepares you to beat the oddsmakers.