College football season is heating up as we head into the action-packed Week 4. With exciting conference clashes and ranked matchups, there are plenty of opportunities for winning wagers. But first, you need to understand how to read the odds and identify the best bets.
In this guide, I‘ll explain everything you need to know about college football odds including the spreads, moneylines and totals. You‘ll get betting tips, predictions and picks for Week 4. Let‘s dive in!
How to Read NCAA Football Odds
Before we get to the games, here is a quick primer on how to read college football odds:
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The spread (or point spread) sets a margin of victory. The favored team must win by more than the spread to cover.
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The moneyline is for picking the outright winner. Heavy chalk will be -300 or higher, with plus-money dogs at +120 or more.
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Over/under (or total) is the combined points scored. You bet whether more or fewer total points are scored.
You‘ll also see a vig or juice like -110 or -105 on the lines. This is how the sportsbooks take a cut of the action.
Now let‘s examine the top Week 4 matchups and betting lines.
Week 4 Top Games Analysis
Digging into the schedule and matchups is crucial for making winning bets. Here I‘ll examine some of the best contests and where I see the value:
#11 Tennessee at #20 Florida (-20, O/U 62.5)
This clash of ranked SEC teams sees Tennessee getting a full 3 touchdowns on the road. The over/under is set at a high 62.5 points. The Vols are averaging over 50 points per game on offense and have the firepower to hang around.
- Florida‘s defense is giving up just 10 points per game while Tennessee surrenders over 20. That favors the Gators here.
- However, the Volunteers have covered 6 of their last 7 as road dogs. They keep it close.
- Tennessee is 4th in total offense with over 553 yards per game. They can trade points with the Gators.
- With Florida laying so many points, take the Vols +20.
Pick: Tennessee +20
#5 Clemson (-10, O/U 51.5) at #16 NC State
In a battle of ACC Atlantic foes, Clemson gives 10 points on the road against the Wolfpack. But NC State has a stout defense allowing just 16 points per game. The under on the total also has value given these defensive strengths.
- NC State is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 at home. They play well here as home dogs.
- Clemson has failed to cover in 5 straight as road favorites.
- The under is 4-1 in Clemson‘s last 5 ACC games. Unders are 29-11 in NC State‘s last 40.
- With two strong defenses, the under 51.5 points is the smart pick.
Pick: NC State +10 and Under 51.5
Wisconsin (-6.5, O/U 42) vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame heads to Camp Randall Stadium to take on Wisconsin in a defensive affair. The total sits at just 42 points. Both teams are giving up 17 points or less per game and excel at stopping the run.
- Wisconsin has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against Independents like Notre Dame.
- The Irish are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are overvalued here most likely.
- First year coaches are 48-21 ATS in their first away game with a team. New Irish coach Marcus Freeman fits that system.
- The under is 4-0 in Notre Dame‘s last 4 vs Big Ten foes. And 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5 and Under 42
Week 4 Betting Guide and Predictions
For bettors looking for a quick betting guide, here are my picks and predictions for some of the top Week 4 games:
- Florida -20 over Tennessee
- NC State +10 vs. Clemson
- Notre Dame +6.5 at Wisconsin
- Over 62.5 in Tennessee/Florida
- Under 51.5 in NC State/Clemson
- Over 63 in Wake Forest/Virginia
- Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota
- Oklahoma State -6 over Baylor
- USC -6.5 over Oregon State
I recommend checking the latest real-time odds right before kickoff. Steam moves and line shifts happen quickly in college football. You want to stay on top of any changes.
NCAA Football Betting Tips and Strategies
Implementing smart betting strategies separates successful sports gamblers from average joes. Here are my top college football betting tips:
Shop for the Best Lines
Always compare odds and lines across multiple sportsbooks. A few points difference in your favor on the spread or extra juice on the moneyline can pay off long term. Opening accounts at several books allows line shopping.
Follow the Money
Sharp bettors and syndicates move lines. If a line starts shifting one direction, it often indicates respected action on that side. However, beware of bad information and traps. Not all line moves are "wiseguys".
Study Trends and Stats
Teams have tendencies that influence outcomes. Know which teams excel on offense or defense. Watch out for letdowns and lookahead spots. Home and away records matter. Use stats and metrics to spot value.
Manage Your Bankroll
Don‘t chase losses or bet more than you can afford to lose. Have a staking plan and stick to it. Most experts suggest wagering just 1-5% of your bankroll per bet. Too much risk leads to ruin.
Stay Flexible
Don‘t fall in love with just one side or force wagers. If you don‘t see value, wait for the right spot. There will always be more opportunities. Stay objective.
Enjoy the Games
Don‘t just bet for the sake of betting. Enjoy watching and wagering on college football. Focus on entertainment over simply making money. Remember, it‘s just sports.
Conclusion
College football betting markets are extremely efficient. Doing your homework by analyzing matchups, stats, and trends is key to gaining an edge. This betting guide for Week 4 provides predictions, picks and tips to help beat the odds.
Be sure to check back each week as I‘ll be breaking down all the NCAA football odds and big games. Best of luck with all your college football wagers and enjoy all the hard-hitting gridiron action!
